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"The risk of the Fed is asymmetric: the risk of cutting too early and inflation flaring up is much worse than the risk of staying higher and going into a mild recession," he said. Traders are betting that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for three more meetings before starting to cut interest rates in May - earlier than previously expected. Vanguard, which manages $7.6 trillion in assets, expects gross domestic product growth next year to be 0.5%, with one or two quarters of negative growth. The Fed will likely cut rates by 100 to 150 basis points next year, said Aliaga-Diaz. In coming meetings, the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold but it will keep open the possibility of additional hikes, he said.

Persons: Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Reuters, Traders, Thomson Locations: U.S

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

REUTERS/Lori Shepler/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 27 (Reuters) - U.S. bond giant Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) said on Monday it expects the next few years to provide the best opportunities for private credit investors since the global financial crisis. "As private credit investors, this is the environment we’ve been waiting for," portfolio managers at PIMCO said in a note. In particular, PIMCO expects the lower liquidity environment to create opportunities for private credit investors in specialty finance - collateral-based loans to consumers and small businesses - as well as in senior corporate loans and commercial real estate. Within specialty finance, the asset manager singled out residential mortgage credit, solar and home improvement lending, equipment finance and aircraft leasing. PIMCO said it expects opportunities for private credit to provide such financing not just directly to borrowers, but also to banks and non-bank lenders.

Persons: Lori Shepler, PIMCO, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Pacific Investment Management Company, Thomson Locations: Newport Beach , California

Industry practice suggests that a large share of hedge funds trading in repo markets put up zero collateral, meaning they are fuelling activity using enormous amounts of cheap debt. A looming rule by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would expand the use of central clearing in the cash Treasury and repo market. SEC chair Gary Gensler recently promoted the benefits of central clearing and pointed to data showing high levels of repo trades transacted at zero haircuts. James Tabacchi, CEO of South Street Securities, called zero haircuts a "race to the bottom" and not healthy for markets. However, some market participants have voiced concerns that some of the proposed reforms could be a hurdle for some investors, potentially undermining the goal to improve liquidity and resilience in the Treasury market.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Christopher Clarke, Gary Gensler, James Tabacchi, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Industry, repo, North America Sovereign Financing, Morgan Securities, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Corporation, SEC, . Federal Reserve, South Street Securities, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Treasuries, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Carolina

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits that have helped lift government bond yields this year will likely become secondary factors for investors, as their focus shifts to economic fundamentals, Citi analysts said. "Our baseline is that over time investors accept these fiscal risks as a fact of life and that ultimately it is not supply and demand that determine Treasury yields but it's more about the fundamentals of the economy," he said. Moody's, which last week lowered its outlook on U.S. credit, expects the government to continue to run wide fiscal deficits due to increased spending and higher debt interest payments. Some Fed officials have also said rising bond yields, which make access to credit more expensive, could be a substitute for increasing interest rates further. "There is going to be an extraction of higher yields from these investors," cautioned Mathai.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Fitch, Moody's, Nathan Sheets, Ray Dalio, Jabaz Mathai, Mathai, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Citi, Office, Associates, CNBC, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/3] The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. Beijing needs to pull "multiple levers" at the same time to address the "vulnerabilities" in the financial system, local government financing, as well as consumer sentiment, said Edward Al-Hussainy, head of emerging market fixed income research at Columbia Threadneedle, which owns Country Garden bonds. China property sector slumpShoring up confidence is the biggest challenge facing Beijing and is key to getting homebuyers spending again, which analysts says isn't likely to happen soon given an uncertain economic outlook. Reuters reported last week that Chinese authorities have asked domestic financial behemoth Ping An Insurance Group to take a controlling stake in Country Garden. "You need to fix the macro environment first; if you don't earn enough how do you buy a property?," said Xu, whose firm holds China property dollar bonds.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, isn't, Morgan Stanley, Ping, Ping An, Elliot Hentov, Steven Xu, Xu, Raymond Cheng, Goldman Sachs, Clare Jim, Davide Barbuscia, Karin Strohecker, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Sumeet Chatterjee Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Columbia, Reuters, HK, Economic Work Conference, Reuters Graphics, HIT, Insurance Group, State Street Global Advisors, Country, Harmonia, Bloomberg, China, CIBM Securities, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Beijing, outflows, Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore

[1/2] The logo of Barclays bank is seen on glass lamps outside of a branch of the bank in the City of London financial district in London September 4, 2017. The SEC central clearing rule, first proposed in September last year, would apply to the cash Treasury and repurchase agreements (repo) markets, where banks and other players such as hedge funds borrow short-term loans backed by Treasuries. "This creates a potential single-point of failure risk as recent events illustrate," he said, referring to the ICBC hack. Abate also flagged cybersecurity risks for direct members of the FICC, as well as clients they sponsor to access the clearing platform, saying mandatory central clearing could make FICC "a fortress with many doors." The SEC is expected to finalize the rule early next year, said Barclays, but it is unclear how much time the industry would have to implement it and whether central clearing will occur simultaneously for Treasuries and repo transactions.

Persons: Toby Melville, Joseph Abate, ICBC, BNY Mellon, Abate, DTCC, Treasuries, Davide Barbuscia, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Barclays, REUTERS, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Commercial Bank of China's, SEC, Treasuries, Corporation, Depository Trust, Clearing Corporation, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: City, London, Commercial Bank of China's U.S, U.S

Moody's is the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. government. Fitch changed its rating from triple-A to AA+ in August, joining S&P which has had an AA+ rating since 2011. “While the statement by Moody’s maintains the United States’ AAA rating, we disagree with the shift to a negative outlook. The sharp rise in Treasury yields "has increased pre-existing pressure on US debt affordability," Moody's said. “Moody’s just downgraded our credit rating outlook to negative because of our out-of-control government spending and deficits," hardline Republican Representative Andy Harris said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Joe Biden's, Fitch, Moody's, Karine Jean, Pierre, Moody’s, Wally Adeyemo, Adeyemo, Biden, Quincy Krosby, Donald Trump, Mike Johnson, “ Moody’s, Andy Harris, ”, Richard Rohan Francis, Davide Barbuscia, Andrea Shalal, David Morgan, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Shilpi Majumdar, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, . House, U.S ., Aaa, White, Republican, States ’ AAA, Treasury, Reserve, LPL, New York Times, Republicans, Democratic, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, American, Siena, Nevada , Georgia, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Trump, Wisconsin

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

A BNY Mellon sign is seen on their headquarters in New York's financial district, January 19, 2011. "We're in a period when the Treasury market needs to be relied upon for its safety and liquidity," Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon, said in an interview. "And if on top of that you're trying to implement very rapidly a fundamental reassembly of the Treasury market, that's when you run the risk of having market functioning deteriorate." Liquidity crunches in recent years have raised regulatory concerns about the Treasury market's ability to function during times of stress. "Central clearing will strengthen the market’s core attributes of safety and liquidity in times of stress.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BNY Mellon, Treasuries, Nate Wuerffel, Wuerffel, Davide Barbuscia, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Companies Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Treasury, SEC, BNY, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New

A BNY Mellon sign is seen on their headquarters in New York's financial district, January 19, 2011. "We're in a period when the Treasury market needs to be relied upon for its safety and liquidity," Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon, said in an interview. "And if on top of that you're trying to implement very rapidly a fundamental reassembly of the Treasury market, that's when you run the risk of having market functioning deteriorate." Notably, in March 2020 the market seized up as pandemic fears gripped investors, prompting the Federal Reserve to buy Treasuries to support the market. "An extended implementation timeline in the final rule could substantially lower the risk that the transition itself could worsen market functioning," Wuerffel said in a note on Wednesday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BNY Mellon, Treasuries, Nate Wuerffel, Wuerffel, Davide Barbuscia, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Companies Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Treasury, SEC, BNY, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New

Plenty of bond investors have been burned calling a bottom in a selloff that has taken Treasuries to the cusp of an unprecedented third straight year of losses. One potential near-term pitfall is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data, which could revive expectations of Fed hawkishness if they come in stronger than expected. The rise in Treasury yields has reached far beyond the bond market. The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July high, as rising bond yields offer investment competition to equities while threatening to raise the cost of capital for companies. “The market is running with the idea that the Fed is done hiking, which they may or may not be,” he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell nodded, Bonds, ”, Jack McIntyre, “, ” McIntyre, Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne, Bond, Josh Emanuel, Powell, We've, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, ” Wilensky, Noah Wise, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S . Treasury, Brandywine, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wilshire

The logo for Vanguard is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 1, 2022. Despite a "cruel summer for bond investors," long-term bonds continue to remain attractive as the economy will likely enter a shallow recession next year, the world's second-largest asset manager said in a fixed income outlook seen by Reuters. "The relative advantage short-term government bonds have can fade quickly, and investors can fare better when they lock in higher rates for longer," Vanguard said. Vanguard said it expects interest rates will not be cut until at least mid-2024, and that bond yields will not return to the low levels that characterized the U.S. bond market in recent history. "We view high-quality corporates as one of the more attractive places to be in credit," Vanguard said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bill Ackman, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Will Dunham Organizations: Vanguard, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Pershing, Capital, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia

The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

Developers, financial advisers and bondholders said that could make debt restructuring terms much worse than expected earlier. DEFAULTING DEVELOPERSThe property sector accounts for roughly a quarter of the world's second-largest economy. That could trigger off one of the world's biggest debt restructuring exercises. However, a turnaround (in the property sector) may need more," said Chuanyi Zhou, Asia corporate analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which holds Sunac's bonds. Chinese policymakers rolled out a range of support measures in late August and early September to revive the property sector.

Persons: Shimao, Chuanyi Zhou, Yuzhou, Edward Al, Clare Jim, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Kim Coghill Organizations: HONG KONG, JPMorgan, HK, Shimao, CIFI Holdings, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Developers, Reuters, Kaisa, Columbia, China Index Academy, Thomson Locations: HONG, China, Asia, Hong Kong, New York

Jobs growth for September nearly doubled expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. “It’s quite a report,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields surged above 5% hitting their highest since 2007. However, Craig Ellinger, head of Americas fixed income at UBS Asset Management, believes more rate increases could be in store.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Peter Cardillo, Jake Schurmeier, ” Alex McGrath, Tiffany Wilding, Craig Ellinger, Ellinger, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Sruthi Shankar, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Nomiyama, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Harbor Capital, ADP, Fed, UBS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, Americas

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - A U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the country's credit, credit rating agency Moody's said on Monday, a stern warning coming one month after Fitch downgraded the U.S. by one notch on the back of a debt ceiling crisis. Moody's has an "Aaa" rating for the U.S. government with a stable outlook - the highest creditworthiness it assigns to borrowers. "Fiscal policymaking is less robust in the U.S. than in many Aaa-rated peers, and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness," Moody's said in a statement. The economic impact of a shutdown would likely be limited and short-lived, with the most direct economic impact caused by lower government spending. Of course, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more negative its impact would be on the broader economy, said Moody's.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Moody's, Fitch, William Foster, Foster, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Sharon Singleton, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, P Global, Aaa, Republican Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Washington, Aaa, Moody's

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Broadly speaking, higher rates for longer could be an unwelcome turn of events for stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% on Wednesday, while the yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, hit 17-year highs. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate late Wednesday showed traders were betting the central bank would ease monetary policy by a total of nearly 60 basis points next year, bringing interest rates to about 4.8%. Signs of wobbling growth could bolster the case for the central bank to cut rates far sooner than it had projected.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Josh Jamner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Jerome Powell, …, David Norris, John Madziyire, ”, Norris, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Herbert Lash, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Stephen Coates Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S ., Clearbridge Investments, TD Securities USA, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

The risk, they have warned, is that large basis positions could once again exacerbate vulnerabilities in the U.S. bond market, which is a linchpin of the world's financial system. "These basis positions with these transformations are going to be a part of the equation because it's a necessary evil to get the capital to meet the demand." Higher supply comes as liquidity in Treasuries has been problematic for most of last year, partially due to rising volatility spurred by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle. But Richard Chambers, global head of repo trading and global co-head of short macro trading at Goldman Sachs, told the trading forum on Thursday that the repo market was now more efficient. "We will have more levered investors buying Treasuries into 2024 and so demand for leverage in Treasuries will increase," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Janet, Yellen, Jason Granet, Mark Wendland, ”, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, Treasuries, Treasury, BNY Mellon, DRW Holdings, Reuters, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Treasuries

The trades - typically the domain of macro hedge funds with relative value strategies - consist of selling a futures contract, buying Treasuries deliverable into that contract with repurchase agreement (repo) funding, and delivering them at contract expiry. "Cash-futures basis positions could again be exposed to stress during broader market corrections," Fed economists said in an Aug. 30 note. Separately, in a Sept. 8 note that looked among other things at hedge funds' Treasury exposures, Fed economists said there was a risk of a rapid unwind of basis trade positions in case of higher repo funding costs. "However, the approach they take may not be straightforward as the Fed does not have direct regulatory oversight over hedge funds," he said. "Cash futures basis trades are vulnerable to two risks: higher margin costs on the futures short and higher financing costs on the cash long position," Barclays said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Deutsche's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, repo, Futures Trading Commission, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. It has around $14.8 billion worth of debt due within 12 months, while its cash levels are around $13.8 billion. Country Garden declined to comment. Despite those measures, China's new home prices fell for the fourth month in August, according to a private survey on Friday, as the property debt crisis kept confidence at a low ebb. "Country Garden will probably make full use of the grace periods…it still looks challenging for them to generate enough cash for the upcoming payments, both onshore and offshore," said Ting Meng, a senior credit strategist at ANZ.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, Ting Meng, Benjamin Bennett, they've, Xie Yu, Davide Barbuscia, Sumeet Chatterjee, Muralikumar Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Columbia, U.S, Country Garden, ANZ, General Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Country, Hong Kong, New York

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